Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:30 · Stoke City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Sheffield United33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Watford (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-4
Sheffield United
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 16 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Norwich City (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.