Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 12:30 · Stoke City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 34%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City42%34%+7
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Southampton30%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 47% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Jan 24 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
Southampton
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 25 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
- Jan 4 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.