Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 12:30 · Stoke City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 42%
A 31% away win. The market says 22%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City42%51%−9
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Swansea City31%22%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 78% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 70% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Sheffield United (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
Swansea City
LossLossLossWinWin
- Dec 9 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Nov 22 · at Bristol City (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.