Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Stoke City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City40%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw29%29%0
OursMarket
Swansea City31%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 55% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Millwall (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
Swansea City
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 8 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Southampton (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.