Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 · Stoke City vs Watford
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 36%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City41%36%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Watford33%36%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 50% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Mar 10 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-3
- Mar 7 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
Watford
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Feb 27 · at Bristol City (A)2-1
- Feb 24 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Derby County (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Preston North End (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.