3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Stord vs Gneist
Likeliest: Stord win · 41%
A 33% away win. The market says 25%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stord41%54%−12
OursMarket
Draw26%21%+5
OursMarket
Gneist33%25%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 75% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 68% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stord
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Varegg (A)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Vard Haugesund (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Fyllingsdalen (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Djerv 1919 (H)3-4
- Sep 12 · at Askøy FK (A)3-3
Gneist
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Sogndal IL II (A)3-5
- Oct 3 · v Djerv 1919 (H)0-5
- Sep 26 · at Austevoll (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Varegg (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Fyllingsdalen (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stord | Gneist |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-4 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.