Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 30 · 14:00 · Strasbourg vs Brest
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 68%
A 68% home win. The market says 53%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg68%53%+15
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Brest12%22%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 78% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 47% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 71% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
LossWinWinLossWin
- Nov 27 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Nov 9 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · at Häcken (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · at Rennes (A)1-4
Brest
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Nov 23 · v Metz (H)3-2
- Nov 8 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Nov 2 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Le Havre (A)0-1
- Oct 25 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.