Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 16 · 19:00 · Strasbourg vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 51%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg51%53%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0524%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 71% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 9 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Apr 4 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · at Nantes (A)3-2
- Mar 19 · v Rijeka (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Paris (H)0-0
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 12 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Apr 9 · v Strasbourg (H)2-0
- Apr 4 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Sigma Olomouc (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.