Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Feb 27 · 19:45 · Strasbourg vs Lens
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 42%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg42%40%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Lens35%33%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 57% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 61% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-1
- Feb 14 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Feb 5 · v Monaco (H)3-1
- Feb 1 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-2
Lens
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 21 · v Monaco (H)2-3
- Feb 14 · at Paris (A)5-0
- Feb 7 · v Rennes (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)4-2
- Jan 30 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.