Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 14 · 16:15 · Strasbourg vs Lorient
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 53%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg64%53%+11
OursMarket
Draw18%26%−7
OursMarket
Lorient17%21%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 51% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 47% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 74% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 72% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 11 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Brest (H)1-2
- Nov 27 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Lens (A)0-1
Lorient
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Dec 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Nov 9 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Lens (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.