Coupe de France (France) · Thu, Feb 5 · 20:00 · Strasbourg vs Monaco
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 39%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg46%39%+7
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
Monaco32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 55% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 1 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · at LOSC Lille (A)4-1
- Jan 18 · v Metz (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Avranches (A)6-0
- Jan 3 · at Nice (A)1-1
Monaco
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Jan 31 · v Rennes (H)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Jan 24 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Jan 20 · at Real Madrid (A)1-6
- Jan 16 · v Lorient (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.