Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Strasbourg vs Monaco
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 32%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg50%32%+18
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Monaco26%43%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 57% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 68% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 43% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
LossLossLossDrawWin
- May 13 · at Brest (A)2-1
- May 10 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- May 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-1
- May 3 · v Toulouse (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
Monaco
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 10 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Metz (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
- Apr 19 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Apr 10 · at Paris (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.