Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 4 · 15:00 · Strasbourg vs Nice
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg63%51%+12
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Nice17%24%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 76% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 49% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 68% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Mar 22 · at Nantes (A)3-2
- Mar 19 · v Rijeka (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Rijeka (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
Nice
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-4
- Mar 14 · at Angers SCO (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Rennes (H)0-4
- Mar 1 · at Paris (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Lorient (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.