Coupe de France (France) · Wed, Apr 22 · 19:00 · Strasbourg vs Nice
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 72%
A 72% home win. The market says 55%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg72%55%+18
OursMarket
Draw17%24%−7
OursMarket
Nice10%21%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 79% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 45% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 73% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 19 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Apr 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Apr 9 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Apr 4 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · at Nantes (A)3-2
Nice
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 18 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-4
- Mar 14 · at Angers SCO (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.