Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, May 7 · 19:00 · Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 50%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano25%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 51% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
LossLossWinLossLoss
- May 3 · v Toulouse (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Lorient (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Rennes (H)0-3
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 3 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 30 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-3
- Apr 23 · v Espanyol (H)1-0
- Apr 16 · at AEK Athens (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.