Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 19 · 15:15 · Strasbourg vs Rennes
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg61%35%+26
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Rennes18%39%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 61% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 65% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 47% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Apr 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Apr 9 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Apr 4 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · at Nantes (A)3-2
- Mar 19 · v Rijeka (H)1-1
Rennes
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 11 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Brest (A)4-3
- Mar 22 · v Metz (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at Nice (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.