Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 · Strasbourg vs Rijeka
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 56%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg56%69%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Rijeka21%11%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 89% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 31% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 86% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Mar 15 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Rijeka (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Reims (H)2-1
- Feb 27 · v Lens (H)1-1
Rijeka
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 15 · v Istra 1961 (H)0-2
- Mar 12 · v Strasbourg (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at Vukovar (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-0
- Feb 26 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.