Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 3 · 15:15 · Strasbourg vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 63%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg63%34%+30
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−6
OursMarket
Toulouse15%39%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 61% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 66% | −30 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 46% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 30 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Lorient (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Apr 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
Toulouse
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Apr 21 · at Lens (A)1-4
- Apr 17 · at Lens (A)2-3
- Apr 12 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-4
- Apr 3 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.