3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Strindheim vs Rosenborg BK II
Likeliest: Strindheim win · 53%
A 24% draw. The market says 20%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strindheim53%57%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%20%+4
OursMarket
Rosenborg BK II23%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 72% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strindheim
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Nardo (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Molde FK II (H)10-0
- Sep 19 · at Volda (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v FK Kvik (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)2-1
Rosenborg BK II
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · v Melhus (H)1-4
- Sep 25 · at Aalesund FK II (A)0-0
- Sep 21 · at Spjelkavik (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v Nardo (H)2-5
- Sep 6 · at Volda (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Strindheim | Rosenborg BK II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.