1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 13:00 · Strømmen IF vs Åsane
Likeliest: Strømmen IF win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 66%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strømmen IF51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Åsane25%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 66% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strømmen IF
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Haugesund (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · at Sogndal IL (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Bryne FK (H)2-0
Åsane
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Strømsgodset (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Bryne FK (H)0-4
- Sep 16 · at Sandviken (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Ranheim IL (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Strømmen IF | Åsane |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.