1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 · Strømmen IF vs Strømsgodset
Likeliest: Strømsgodset win · 72%
Likely score: 1–2
A 72% away win. The market says 67%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strømmen IF11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Strømsgodset72%67%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strømmen IF
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Odds BK (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · v Åsane (H)6-1
- Oct 11 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Haugesund (A)2-4
Strømsgodset
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Haugesund (H)5-0
- Oct 14 · v Kongsvinger (H)5-1
- Oct 11 · at Lyn FK (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Åsane (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Raufoss (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Strømmen IF | Strømsgodset |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.