3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 09:30 · Strømsgodset II vs Skjetten
Likeliest: Strømsgodset II win · 40%
We make it 32% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strømsgodset II40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Skjetten37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 81% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strømsgodset II
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 4 · at Lillestrøm SK 2 (A)3-3
- Sep 27 · v Fløya (H)2-4
- Sep 21 · at Alta IF (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · at FK Fauske/Sprint (A)3-5
- Sep 6 · v Finnsnes IL (H)5-1
Skjetten
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 6 · v Kongsvinger 2 (H)3-4
- Sep 27 · at Bossekop (A)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Skjervøy (H)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Harstad IL (A)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Tromsø IL II (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Strømsgodset II | Skjetten |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.