1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · Strømsgodset vs Haugesund
Likeliest: Strømsgodset win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strømsgodset53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Haugesund26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strømsgodset
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Kongsvinger (H)5-1
- Oct 11 · at Lyn FK (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Åsane (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Raufoss (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)4-1
Haugesund
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Lyn FK (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Strømmen IF (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Moss FK (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Strømsgodset | Haugesund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.