2. Liga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 18 · 08:30 · Sturm Graz II vs Kapfenberger SV
Likeliest: Sturm Graz II win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sturm Graz II52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Kapfenberger SV25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sturm Graz II
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Liefering (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Wacker Innsbruck (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Austria Salzburg (A)3-3
- Aug 30 · v Rapid Wien II (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (A)1-3
Kapfenberger SV
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Young Violets Austria Wien (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · v SKU Amstetten (H)3-4
- Sep 11 · at Admira Wacker (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v FC Blau Weiss Linz (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Austria Salzburg (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sturm Graz II | Kapfenberger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-4 | 1-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.