Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · Südtirol vs Modena
Likeliest: Modena win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Südtirol26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Modena39%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Südtirol
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v Catanzaro (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Benevento (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Catanzaro (A)2-2
- May 22 · v Bari 1908 (H)0-0
Modena
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 6 · v Avellino (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cremonese (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Benevento (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Venezia (A)2-3
- May 12 · v Juve Stabia (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Südtirol | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.