Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 19:00 · Sunderland vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the away win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland10%12%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Arsenal68%65%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 16% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 8 · v Hull City (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · at Napoli (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.