Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 · Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 39%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland39%29%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion37%43%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 71% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 40% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Mar 8 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Mar 3 · at Leeds United (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Feb 22 · v Fulham (H)1-3
- Feb 15 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 4 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Liverpool (A)0-3
- Feb 11 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sunderland form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record