Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Manchester City (A)3-5
- Sep 16 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Arsenal (H)0-2
- Sep 8 · v Hull City (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Brentford (A)1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Arsenal (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Coventry City (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Chelsea (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sunderland form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record