Premier League (England) · Mon, Feb 2 · 20:00 · Sunderland vs Burnley
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 54%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Burnley23%19%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 43% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 74% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 24 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Jan 4 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- Jan 1 · v Manchester City (H)0-0
Burnley
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Jan 24 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-2
- Jan 17 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Jan 7 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Jan 3 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.