Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Sunderland vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 27%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland45%27%+18
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Chelsea29%47%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 57% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 53% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 73% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 37% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- May 17 · at Everton (A)3-1
- May 9 · v Manchester United (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-5
- Apr 19 · at Aston Villa (A)3-4
Chelsea
WinLossDrawLossWin
- May 19 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- May 16 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.