Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 22 · 14:00 · Sunderland vs Fulham
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 40%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland40%35%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−5
OursMarket
Fulham36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 44% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 50% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
LossWinLossLossWin
- Feb 15 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- Feb 2 · v Burnley (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
Fulham
WinLossLossLossWin
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Everton (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.