Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:00 · Sunderland vs Fulham
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 51%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland51%39%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Fulham22%32%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 47% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 53% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 55% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Everton (A)3-1
- May 9 · v Manchester United (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
Fulham
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 27 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- May 24 · v Newcastle United (H)2-0
- May 17 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- May 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.