EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Sunderland vs Hull City
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 42%
A 29% away win. The market says 20%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland42%55%−13
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
Hull City29%20%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 50% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 80% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 74% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Everton (A)3-1
Hull City
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.