Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 28 · 14:00 · Sunderland vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 42%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland42%34%+8
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Leeds United30%35%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 65% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 49% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-0
- Dec 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-2
Leeds United
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Dec 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)4-1
- Dec 14 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Liverpool (H)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Chelsea (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Manchester City (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.