Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 · Sunderland vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland29%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Leeds United39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Bournemouth (A)0-2
- Oct 15 · at Torreense (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Manchester City (A)3-5
- Sep 16 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-0
Leeds United
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 9 · at Chelsea (A)3-6
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.