Premier League (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 20:00 · Sunderland vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 41%
A 29% home win. The market says 13%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland29%13%+16
OursMarket
Draw30%20%+10
OursMarket
Manchester City41%68%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 32% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 87% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 80% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 16% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 28 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-0
- Dec 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 27 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.