Premier League (England) · Sat, May 9 · 14:00 · Sunderland vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 25%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland39%25%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Manchester United35%49%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 51% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 75% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 34% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
WinWinLossLossDraw
- May 2 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-5
- Apr 19 · at Aston Villa (A)3-4
- Apr 12 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-0
- Mar 22 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
Manchester United
DrawLossWinWinWin
- May 3 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Apr 27 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · v Leeds United (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.