Premier League (England) · Fri, Apr 24 · 19:00 · Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 35%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sunderland46%35%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−1
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest26%35%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 65% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 65% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 50% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sunderland
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 19 · at Aston Villa (A)3-4
- Apr 12 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-0
- Mar 22 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
Nottingham Forest
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 19 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Apr 16 · v Porto (H)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Apr 9 · at Porto (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sunderland | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.