National League (England) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Sutton United vs Boreham Wood
Likeliest: Boreham Wood win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sutton United19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Boreham Wood57%53%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sutton United
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Tamworth (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Eastleigh (H)2-1
Boreham Wood
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Altrincham (H)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Solihull Moors (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Harrogate Town (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Scunthorpe United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sutton United | Boreham Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.