FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Sutton United vs Truro City
Likeliest: Sutton United win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sutton United54%53%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Truro City20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sutton United
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Tamworth (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
Truro City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Braintree Town (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Cirencester Town (H)4-0
- Sep 22 · v Merthyr Town (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Merthyr Town (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Aldershot Town (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sutton United | Truro City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.