K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Suwon FC vs Chungnam Asan FC
Likeliest: Suwon FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Suwon FC53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Chungnam Asan FC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Suwon FC
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Seongnam FC (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Yongin City FC (A)1-1
Chungnam Asan FC
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Gimhae City FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cheonan City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Cheongju FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Suwon FC | Chungnam Asan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-0 | 1-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.