K League 2 (South Korea) · Fri, Oct 9 · 05:00 · Suwon FC vs Hwaseong FC
Likeliest: Suwon FC win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Suwon FC43%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Hwaseong FC29%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Suwon FC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Yongin City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Busan I Park (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
Hwaseong FC
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Seongnam FC (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Suwon FC | Hwaseong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.