K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 11 · 05:00 · Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Ansan Greeners FC
Likeliest: Suwon Samsung Bluewings win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Suwon Samsung Bluewings72%76%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+3
OursMarket
Ansan Greeners FC10%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 24% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Suwon Samsung Bluewings
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Gimpo FC (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Suwon FC (H)2-2
Ansan Greeners FC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Hwaseong FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Busan I Park (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Daegu FC (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Suwon Samsung Bluewings | Ansan Greeners FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.