K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 05:00 · Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Hwaseong FC
Likeliest: Suwon Samsung Bluewings win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Suwon Samsung Bluewings52%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Hwaseong FC22%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Suwon Samsung Bluewings
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Gimpo FC (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-0
Hwaseong FC
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Suwon FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Seongnam FC (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Suwon Samsung Bluewings | Hwaseong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.