Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 29 · 13:30 · SV 07 Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: SV 07 Elversberg win · 47%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV 07 Elversberg47%19%+28
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+2
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen29%59%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 65% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 41% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 81% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 25% | +37 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV 07 Elversberg
Win
- Aug 22 · at MSV Duisburg (A)3-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-0
- May 16 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- May 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
- May 2 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SV 07 Elversberg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.