Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV 07 Elversberg36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Augsburg38%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV 07 Elversberg
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Aug 29 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-2
FC Augsburg
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SV 07 Elversberg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.