Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 13 · 15:30 · SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 86%
A tight one: we make it 86% for the away win. The market says 82%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV 07 Elversberg5%7%−2
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
FC Bayern München86%82%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 14% | 18% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 5% | 8% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 3.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV 07 Elversberg
WinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Aug 29 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at MSV Duisburg (A)3-1
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 10 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)4-1
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)5-1
- May 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SV 07 Elversberg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.