3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · SV Meppen vs FC Würzburger Kickers
Likeliest: SV Meppen win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Meppen46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Würzburger Kickers29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Meppen
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v TSV Havelse (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at F.C. Hansa Rostock (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v FC Viktoria Köln (H)1-3
FC Würzburger Kickers
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v SV Waldhof Mannheim (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at TSV Havelse (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at SC Verl (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Alemannia Aachen (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | SV Meppen | FC Würzburger Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.