Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 17 · 17:30 · SV Ried vs Austria Wien
Likeliest: SV Ried win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Ried40%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Austria Wien37%34%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Ried
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-3
- Aug 21 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)1-0
Austria Wien
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | SV Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.