Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Fri, Sep 11 · 17:30 · SV Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Ried16%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Red Bull Salzburg61%59%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Ried
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-3
- Aug 21 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at LASK (A)1-4
- Aug 9 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)1-2
- Aug 2 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)1-1
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 2 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · v Austria Wien (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Mjällby (H)3-0
- Aug 20 · at Mjällby (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · at WSG Tirol (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | SV Ried | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-4 | 6-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 56% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.